Növénytermelés / Volume 62 / Issue 2 (June 2013) / pp. 89-110

Tóthné Lökös K; ifj. Lökös L

County-level examination of the climate sensitivity of the Hungarian winter wheat production areas

The presented alternative method which aims at evaluating the stability of field crop production assesses and compares the Hungarian winter wheat production areas based on the response reactions to climate change. We obtained a close negative linear correlation (r=-0.86) between the mean and relative standard deviation values of the average yields per county in each year during the period between 2000-2011. Based on the average yield values of each county, the years involved in the examination were classified into five groups which significantly differed from each other. Based on the result of the analysis of variance, crop year had a 58% impact and production site had a 28% impact on the fluctuation of mean yield. The climate sensitivity of the examined counties were characterised by different yield stability parameters and their grouping was performed with cluster analysis based on these parameters. The separation of the four groups obtained this way based on yield stability parameters was illustrated with a box plot and evaluated from the aspect of yield and yield safety. This evaluation also showed the extent of risk related to the wheat production yield of each county. The geographical location of the groups showing various extents of yield stability was shown on a map. Knowing the yield stability of each county could contribute to the development of production procedures that are more effective against the adverse impacts of climate change.
Keywords: climate sensitivity, yield stability, production site effect, crop year effect, wheat mean yield

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